Sunday 16 March 2014

Series of missteps by Malaysia mounts, complicating flight search

Series of missteps by Malaysia mounts, complicating flight search
An Indonesian student displays a message expressing prayers and well-wishes for passengers of the missing Malaysia Airlines (MAS) flight MH370, in Medan, North Sumatra on March 15, 2014.
Sepang, Malaysia:  The radar blip that was Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 did a wide U-turn over the Gulf of Thailand and then began moving inexorably past at least three military radar arrays as it traversed northern Malaysia, even flying high over one of the country's biggest cities before heading out over the Strait of Malacca.

Yet inside a Malaysian air force control room on the country's west coast, where American-made F-18s and F-5 fighters stood at a high level of readiness for emergencies exactly like the one unfolding in the early morning of March 8, a four-person air defense radar crew did nothing about the unauthorized flight. "The watch team never noticed the blip," said a person with detailed knowledge of the investigation into Flight 370. "It was as though the airspace was his."

It was not the first and certainly not the last in a long series of errors by the Malaysian government that has made the geographically vast and technologically complex task of finding the $50 million Malaysia Airlines jet far more difficult.

A week after the plane disappeared, the trail is even colder as the search now sprawls from the snowy peaks of the Himalayas to the empty expanses of the southern Indian Ocean. Nobody knows yet whether the delays cost the lives of any of the 239 people who boarded the flight to Beijing at Kuala Lumpur's ultramodern airport here. But the mistakes have accumulated at a remarkable pace.

"The fact that it flew straight over Malaysia, without the Malaysian military identifying it, is just plain weird - not just weird, but also very damning and tragic," said David Learmount, operations and safety editor for Flightglobal, a news and data service for the aviation sector.

Senior Malaysian military officers became aware within hours of the radar data once word spread that a civilian airliner had vanished. The Malaysian government nonetheless organized and oversaw an expensive and complex international search effort in the Gulf of Thailand that lasted a full week. Only Saturday morning did Prime Minister Najib Razak finally shut it down after admitting what had been widely reported in the news media: Satellite data showed that the engines on the missing plane had continued to run for nearly six more hours after it left Malaysian airspace.

Finding the plane and figuring out what happened to it is now a far more daunting task than if the plane had been intercepted. If the aircraft ended up in the southern Indian Ocean, as some aviation experts now suggest, then floating debris could have subsequently drifted hundreds of miles, making it extremely hard to figure out where the cockpit voice and data recorders sank.

And because the recorders keep only the last two hours of cockpit conversation, even the aircraft's recorders may hold few secrets.

With so much uncertainty about the flight, it is not yet possible to know whether any actions by the Malaysian government or military could have altered its fate. Responding to a storm of criticism, particularly from China, whose citizens made up two-thirds of the passengers, Najib took pains in a statement early Saturday afternoon to say that Malaysia had not concealed information, including military data.

"We have shared information in real time with authorities who have the necessary experience to interpret the data," he said, reading aloud a statement in English at a news conference. "We have been working nonstop to assist the investigation, and we have put our national security second to the search for the missing plane."

Malaysia Airlines issued a similarly defensive statement late Saturday afternoon. "Given the nature of the situation and its extreme sensitivity, it was critical that the raw satellite signals were verified and analyzed by the relevant authorities so that their significance could be properly understood," the airline said. "This naturally took some time, during which we were unable to publicly confirm their existence."

Aviation experts said a trained pilot would be the most obvious person to have carried  out a complicated scheme involving the plane. Yet for a week after the plane's disappearance, Malaysian law enforcement authorities said that their investigation did not include searching the home of the pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah.

On Saturday afternoon, the police were seen entering the gated community where Zaharie was said to have lived, and Malaysian news media reported that they had searched his home. The police declined to comment, and it is not known whether the authorities made any effort to secure Zaharie's home and prevent any destruction of evidence over the past week.

Najib said Saturday that "the Malaysian authorities have refocused their investigation into the crew and passengers on board," but Zaharie has not been accused of any wrongdoing. No information has been released yet on whether the homes of the co-pilot or flight attendants might be searched. 

Even before the plane took off, Malaysian immigration officials had allowed onto the plane at least two people using passports that had been logged into a global database as stolen, although there is no evidence that either person carrying a stolen passport was involved in diverting the plane.

A British Royal Air Force base in the colonial era, the Malaysian air force base at Butterworth sits on the mainland across from the island of Penang at the northern reaches of the Strait of Malacca. There, in the early morning hours of March 8, the four-person crew watching for intrusions into the country's air space either did not notice or failed to report a blip on their defensive radar and air traffic radar that was moving steadily across the country from east to west, heading right toward them, said the person with knowledge of the matter.

Neither that team nor the crews at two other radar installations at Kota Bharu, closer to where the airliner last had contact with the ground, designated the blip as an unknown intruder warranting attention, the person said. The aircraft proceeded to fly across the country and out to sea without anyone on watch telling a superior and alerting the national defense command near Kuala Lumpur, even though the radar contact's flight path did not correspond to any filed flight plan.

As a result, combat aircraft never scrambled to investigate. The plane, identified at the time by Najib as Flight 370, passed directly over Penang, a largely urban state with more than 1.6 million people, then turned and headed out over the Strait of Malacca.

The existence of the radar contact was discovered only when military officials began reviewing tapes later in the morning on March 8, after the passenger jet failed to arrive in Beijing. It was already becoming clear that morning, only hours after the unauthorized flyover, that something had gone very wrong. Tapes from both the Butterworth and Kota Bharu bases showed the radar contact arriving from the area of the last known position of Flight 370, the person familiar with the investigation said.

Gen. Rodzali Daud, commander of Malaysia's air force, publicly acknowledged the existence of the radar signals for the first time Wednesday, well into the fifth day after the plane's disappearance. He emphasized that further analysis was necessary because the radar plots of the aircraft's location were stripped of the identifying information given by the plane's onboard transponders, which someone aboard the aircraft appeared to have turned off.

The failure to identify Flight 370's errant course meant that a chance to send military aircraft to identify and redirect the jet, a Boeing 777, was lost. And for five days the crews on an armada of search vessels, including two U.S. warships, focused the bulk of their attention in the waters off Malaysia's east coast, far from the plane's actual path.

Rodzali went to the Butterworth air force base the day that the plane disappeared and was told of the radar blips, the person familiar with the investigation said. The Malaysian government nonetheless assigned most of its search and rescue resources, as well as ships and aircraft offered by other nations, to a search of the Gulf of Thailand where the aircraft's satellite transponder was turned off, while allocating minimal attention to the Strait of Malacca on the other, western side of Peninsular Malaysia. 

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